It looks like Toronto is set for winter to end early. As this is being posted the worst snowstorm for a couple years has started and is expected to continue through to tomorrow bringing about a foot of snow. Any 
unfortunate groundhog that is dragged from hibernation tomorrow morning won’t be seeing a shadow or likely anything else in the heavy blowing snow. While the Groundhog Day folklore goes: if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day, it will leave the burrow, signifying that winter will soon end. If on the other hand, it is sunny, the groundhog will supposedly “see its shadow” and retreat back into its burrow, and winter will continue for six more weeks. I expect once seeing tomorrow’s weather any groundhog would be in full retreat. But that option isn’t really accounted for in the tradition.
While Groundhog Day gets a lot attention each year as many of us anxiously hope that the thaw of spring will come sooner rather than later, the accuracy of the groundhogs’ predictions has a lot to be desired. A study of weather data over the past 30-40 years shows that the sunny and cloudy days for 13 Canadian cities were close to equal on February 2nd and that the groundhogs’ predictions are right only 37% of the time. In Toronto that record is worse, with weather where a groundhog would see a shadow 54% of the time and the resulting prediction only reflecting the timing of spring’s arrival 29% of the time.
So if the groundhog is right only around a third of the time then it seems fair
to ask why we have this tradition and why we still pay attention to it. Groundhog Day comes from Pennsylvania Germans and has been recognized since at least the mid-1800s. It has origins linked to European festivals that used other animals, including badgers, bears and hedgehogs to predict the coming spring. The Pennsylvanians applied their tradition to the local critter that they had access to and the groundhog was their large hibernating rodent. Groundhog Day has spread through the United States and Canada. While is Punxsutawney Phil of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania is arguably the most famous of groundhogs thanks to the Bill Murray’s movie Groundhog Day, I grew up with Shubenacadie Sam’s predictions and am now in the jurisdiction of Wiarton Willie. In a more agrarian society that lacked the long-term weather forecasting that we have today it makes sense that they’d be eager to get their seeds sown as early as possible, but not too early. Early February, as supplies ran out and winter continued to loom needed something to inspire hope for warmer weather and fresher food.
Even as a modern and urban society, we can’t forecast with certainty the end of winter. But Groundhog Day serves as a reminder that winter is approaching an end. It means that the countdown in on. And that is a good news story at a time when often there is a lull in local news as the dreary winter months seem like they are here to stay. And for the communities that have a furry forecaster, Groundhog Day is big business. Wiarton Ontario, home of Wiarton Willie, attracts 10,000 people a year during a week long festival and according to the experts at Wikipedia is one of Ontario’s most well known events. So, as a settle in for a cozy night at home as winter breaks loose outside I can be comforted knowing that it will end. Maybe not tomorrow. Maybe not six weeks from now. But winter will end.